Infrastructure-defining lows in wind and solar energy resources and their implications for decarbonization solutions

Shannon Hwang, Micah S. Ziegler, Jessika E. Trancik

Rare, severe periods of low solar and wind resource availability pose unique challenges for the transition to an electricity system that depends on substantial proportions of these energy resources. Here we examine the nature of these rare but sizable resource lows in order to probe the space of possible solutions for providing reliable power even during these periods. Our analysis extends beyond previous research by examining the nature of resource lows that drive capacity requirements for energy infrastructure over a broad range of possible future energy systems, and their potential impacts on the operation and sizing of infrastructure solutions. Given that the future costs of these infrastructures are currently unknown — especially when operated in potentially new ways — we orient our analysis toward identifying innovation strategies rather than selecting an optimal set of technologies given assumptions about their future costs. We consider solutions including upscaling renewable power, expanding transmission infrastructure, lowering energy storage costs, broadening demand management, and/or generating electricity from other sources. Our analysis considers the effects of variability in wind and solar energy resources over a 40-year period on simulated energy systems in the coterminous United States. We show how resource lows drive sizing of system components and that technologies proposed to help mitigate low resource availability, such as energy storage and supplemental (i.e., neither wind nor solar) generation, would likely operate at full capacity infrequently, with capacity factors as low as 0.06 or less. Rare but large solar and wind supply-side resource lows occur irregularly and infrequently over decadal timespans and accumulate resource deficits over timescales of days to months, heavily impacting the required capacities and utilization of energy storage, supplemental energy, and demand management infrastructure. These lows can cover large geographical areas — up to hundreds of kilometers — which means that geographical aggregation of generation resources through transmission infrastructure expansion must be at least similarly large to be most effective. Additionally, resource lows occur during predictable seasons, which may be beneficial for demand-side management strategies. Understanding potential solutions to achieve reliable, high-renewable energy systems is an essential step for informing today’s system planning and technological innovation to address climate change. 

Hwang, Shannon Y.S. and Ziegler, Micah S. and Trancik, Jessika E., Infrastructure-defining lows in wind and solar energy resources and their implications for decarbonization solutions (May 06, 2025). Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=5243575